We’re Screwed: This is Not A Drill
October 15, 2018
In 2030, we’ll be just entering the years in which the dewy drops of youth have begun leaching from our cheeks. We’ll hopefully have stable jobs, perhaps a family, and be relatively happy, settling down and looking forward to a bright future.
Actually, scratch that. According to the bombshell United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report that came out last week, we’ll more likely be scrambling to survive, as we have less than 12 years to make massive, unprecedented changes to the global energy infrastructure before the planet exceeds 1.5℃ average global warming above pre-industrial temperatures. So far, human activities have already caused temperatures to rise 1℃ above pre-industrial temperatures; even the most optimistic predictions about warming are dire.
First, lest any seek to discredit this report, it is comprised of data from more than 6,000 peer-reviewed studies, with over 1000 more scientists reviewing the findings. The report (and others before it) shows that the majority of global warming since the mid-20th century has been due to increased concentrations of human-caused, or anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, not natural reasons. If global warming were not anthropogenic, models show that the world would be cooling, not warming.
Additionally, the report underscores what decades of scientific research has determined – that every fraction of a degree increase in average temperatures matters. It seems so trivial, but already, climate change has increased the frequency of and exacerbated damages caused by natural disasters like Hurricane Maria. The first climate refugees have already emerged, although international law doesn’t define them as “refugees.” Close to home, Isle de Jean Charles, an island off the coast of Louisiana, has lost 98% of its land since 1955; its 99 remaining residents are planning to flee to the mainland United States. By the end of the century, the US will receive roughly 13 million climate refugees. You think that the current migrant crisis is bad? Try doing nothing about global warming and we’ll see how bad it gets. Furthermore, global warming increases the frequency of conflict, especially as its effects are felt the most in regions with already unstable governments. As resources become scarcer, conflicts such as tensions over fisheries in the South China Sea or over water in the Horn of Africa will erupt more often, especially at the local level. This, along with droughts and famines prolonged by global warming, would also push more residents to flee, contributing to refugee flows and increasing international instability. Finally, global warming will cause $54 trillion in global economic damages by 2100 with a 1.5℃ rise, $69 trillion with 2℃. Conversely, a global shift to sustainability would yield $26 trillion in economic benefits by 2030.
It is ludicrous and frankly life-threatening that any seek to question whether humans contribute to global warming. 97% of scientists researching on the topic agree that humans contribute to global warming. There is no debate about if, or really even how much. To put that into perspective, around the same percentage of scientists agree that smoking cigarettes causes lung cancer. Call me a coward, but I’d rather play it safe and agree with the 97% than take my chances with the 3%.
So what can the world do? The report suggests massive international action is necessary. We need to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 45% below 2010 levels by 2030, reaching a net zero by 2050. We need to cut coal consumption to a third of what it is now. We need to extract carbon from the atmosphere. The technology and policy to do this, difficult though it is, is possible in the form of approaches including renewable fuels usage and a carbon tax. The question is whether governments will do anything about it.
As of today, there is only one political party in the world that consistently denies anthropogenic climate change: the Grand Old Party of the United States. After the UN report came out, President Trump dismissed its veracity, saying, “I can give you reports that are fabulous, and I can give you reports that aren’t so good.” Republicans are decrying it as “fantasy,” calling the policy proposals advocated by the report “from La La Land” (not the fun one) as the world burns around them. We are the only country in the world that is not signed onto the Paris Climate Agreement and our reluctance is pushing other countries to shirk their duties to combat climate change as well. The current administration is pushing an unprecedented rollback of EPA regulations; according to the EPA itself, a plan to eliminate one regulation reducing methane emissions will cost at least 1400 lives a year. 53 out of the 100 current US senators and 232 out of 435 US representatives deny anthropogenic climate change. Rep. Lou Barletta (R, PA Senate candidate), Rep. Keith Rothfus (R, our current representative), and Sen. Pat Toomey (R) are all climate change denialists. To be represented in Congress by a climate change denier is akin to being represented by someone who denies the existence of gravity. I wouldn’t trust that person to teach children, let alone govern for me.
Current trends put the world at warming to 3℃ above pre-industrial levels by 2100. That is catastrophic. There is no time to point fingers or think wishfully because it is literally a matter of our life or our death. We have no Planet B and it is the epitome of stupidity to be represented by those who would rather rake in cash from industrial lobbyists than work to prevent the destruction of this planet. Which is why I close by imploring you to vote when you can for candidates who have plans to combat anthropogenic climate change, because anything less will threaten our lives and futures and that of generations after. People are dying and will continue to die because of our inaction. Global warming is not something that will happen. Global warming is already happening and if we don’t do anything now to fight back, then we are all well and truly doomed.